Chinese PV companies may subvert Japanese "domestic beliefs"

Chinese PV companies may subvert Japanese "domestic beliefs"

Abstract Germany has changed from support to restricting the acquisition price of photovoltaic power generation. It is not only Spain that is in a state of chaos. According to a survey of the comprehensive resource system, Germany, which has long led the world solar cell market, has also surged to 7411 megawatts in 2010,...

Germany changed from support to restricted acquisition

Around the purchase price of photovoltaic power generation, it is not only Spain that is in a state of chaos. According to a survey conducted by the Integrated Resources System, Germany, which has led the world's solar cell market for a long time, has also surged to 7411 megawatts in 2010, about twice as many as the previous year. However, in the second year, it has stepped on the brakes and the purchases are basically flat. . The country's downgrade of the purchase price to cool the overheated power generation business also led to a downturn in demand.

The German government announced in February 2012 that it would cut prices again and limit the amount of acquisitions. The purchase price was passed on to the electricity bill, which caused a burden on the nationals. The "power generation was affected by the weather conditions and instability" caused the dissatisfaction of the people and developed into a political issue. The reduction is said to be linked to the scale of power generation, which is 2 to 30%.

At a time of strong support and strong business, solar cell companies from various countries such as China have swarmed and price competition has intensified. If the demand in countries such as Spain and Germany plummets, the inventory will pile up into mountains, causing the balance of supply and demand to collapse, and the price decline will be unstoppable.

Now, in the European market, the wholesale price of solar cells for companies to dealers continues to fall. The United States Solarbuzz predicts that from October to December 2010, the wholesale price will be an average of $2.19 for 1W, and by one year, from October to December 2011, it will have dropped to $1.14, almost half.

In the European market, where major solar cell companies rely mainly, prices fell and demand sluggished simultaneously, directly impacting the company's earnings in 2011. Solarbuzz predicts that the price decline in Europe is expected to continue to increase in 2012, and it seems to fall to $0.81 in October-December 2012.

“Made in China is of the same quality as Made in Japan”

The solar cells that have disappeared are preparing to flow to the Japanese market, which is about to implement a full-scale acquisition system in July 2012.

Japanese companies with weak influence in the world market have previously been highly competitive in the domestic market, and companies such as Sharp, Kyocera, and Mitsubishi Electric have been occupying a high share. However, once the cost-competitive Chinese-made solar cells are flowing in a large amount, the Japanese domestic market, which is a base for Japanese companies, is likely to be eroded.

European companies are also eager to try. Steffen Studeny, president of the Japanese corporation Q-Cells, said: "In order to reduce our dependence on the European market, we will focus on sales in Japan."

The president of Sharp, who is in charge of the challenge, said: "The long-term reliability ratio of our products is higher than that of foreign products." Kyocera Solar Photovoltaic Business Director and Vice President Maeda Tatsuya also said with enthusiasm: "We will vigorously promote The high performance of our products sells products to photovoltaic power generation projects.” Mr. Hirano Hirano, managing director of SolarFrontier, a member of the Showa Shell Group, stressed: “Our solar cells are highly sensitive and can generate electricity efficiently in the morning and evening and the shade of the sun.”

Japanese companies are emphasizing high quality. But in fact, the quality of solar cells produced in China is hard to say worse than Japanese products.

An official of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said: "One of the purposes of the full-scale acquisition system is to support the solar cell industry in Japan. But the solar cells produced in China are not inferior to Japanese products. If the quality is poor, the Chinese products are Excluding the acquisition system, it will also exclude Japanese products. It is impossible to treat the two differently."

Huang Jianzhang, vice president of Suntech's marketing department, said: "The megawatt solar energy development project using the company's solar photovoltaic cells can successfully obtain loans from financial institutions. This is a proof that our products are trusted." The trust of the investor who benefits the business.

Survivors will be few

In the power generation business, purchasing solar photovoltaic cells that can convert solar energy into electrical energy with higher efficiency at a lower price is directly related to obtaining maximum profits.

The solar cell is mainly composed of two types of single crystal silicon and polycrystalline silicon. The conversion efficiency varies depending on the type, and the conversion efficiency of the single crystal is generally about 20%, and the polycrystal is about 15%.

Although the polycrystalline type is inferior in conversion efficiency to the single crystal type, it is inexpensive, and has been widely used in a megawatt-scale solar power plant having a large installation area. Although single crystals are expensive, they have become popular in fields such as houses with limited installation area and high-efficiency power generation.

Most companies are producing these two types of solar cells, but for similar batteries, the conversion efficiency between companies is small. In the case that the conversion efficiency is basically the same, the price will become the primary factor for the choice of the company.

The Japanese "domestic beliefs" are indeed ingrained, but at the time of the disillusionment, cheap Chinese products are likely to be accepted by the Japanese market. Sun Zhengyi and others in Softbank have expressed the idea of ​​"whether it is made in Japan or manufactured overseas when choosing solar cells."

In fact, as mentioned above, Chinese products are invincible in overseas markets with weak confidence in domestically produced solar cells. Eventually led to the bankruptcy of companies such as Solyndra and SOLON.

There are more and more exitors in the solar cell market, and on the other hand, the top companies from China and other companies are increasing their share. Shi Zhengrong of Suntech said: "In the summer of 2011, the share of the top six has reached 55%. Compared with the previous year's 25%, the ratio has increased greatly."

In the world market, the pursuit of scale has become a condition for survival. Mr. Watanabe of SMBC Nikko Securities Co., Ltd. said: "Chinese companies with huge potential markets in China are in a good position."

European "solar battery foam" rupture

There is a huge “political risk” behind the solar photovoltaic cell bubble. Demand is largely influenced by government support policies such as the power purchase system. In other words, a small decision by the government may determine the life and death of the solar photovoltaic cell industry.

The reason why countries implement the support policy is because the price of solar photovoltaic cells is still relatively high, and the cost is higher than the existing power generation methods such as firepower and nuclear energy. Therefore, governments have promoted the adoption of households and enterprises by subsidizing the purchase of solar photovoltaic cells and setting up acquisition systems.

The key to making the cost equal to or lower than the existing generation cost is "grid parity." Suntech’s Shi Zhengrong said: “There will be no support policy for another three to five years. Now it’s only one step away from the goal.” Solar cell companies agree that “after the grid price is achieved, it will start to spread.”

According to the development route portrayed by governments, with the government's promotion, with the price competition of solar cell companies around the world, the cost of power generation will one day be reduced below the existing power generation cost. In this way, even if the support policy is abolished, the popularity will proceed spontaneously.

However, before reaching the grid parity, the popularity could not be carried out spontaneously. Support policies will drastically affect demand.

In Europe, the world's largest solar cell market, the demand in some countries has undergone dramatic changes in recent years.

A typical example is Spain. According to a survey by Resources Integrated Systems, in 2008, the country purchased 2,758 megawatts of solar cells, nearly five times the amount of the previous year, and became the world's largest consumer, but in a flash, its demand will be in the second year. Suddenly fell to 60/1 of 60 megawatts.

In Spain, the high-priced full-price acquisition system has set off a megawatt-scale solar construction boom, but the power company has lost money due to excessive expansion of the acquisition. As a result, the power company lowered the purchase price, causing a sharp drop in demand. The "solar cell foam" broke down.

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