International Steel Association: China's steel demand will decline by 0.5% in the next two years

International Steel Association: China's steel demand will decline by 0.5% in the next two years

Abstract The International Steel Association released the 2015 and 2016 global short-term steel demand forecast report on the 20th. After a 0.6% increase in 2014, worldsteel forecasts that global apparent steel consumption will increase by 0.5% in 2015 to reach 1.544 billion tons. ...
The International Steel Association released the 2015 and 2016 global short-term steel demand forecast report on the 20th. After a 0.6% increase in 2014, worldsteel forecasts that global apparent steel consumption will increase by 0.5% in 2015 to reach 1.544 billion tons. Global steel consumption is expected to increase by 1.4% in 2016 to reach 1.565 billion tons. China's steel demand will continue to show a negative growth of 0.5% in 2015 and 2016.

On April 21st, the global steel demand forecast report released by International Steel was more conservative, mainly affected by the slowdown of China's economy. The forecast report also reflects the impact of economic restructuring in most countries, especially the impact of the slowdown in investment growth after 2008. As these changes take effect, the steel industry will see a slowdown in growth, and the industry's focus will be on improving operational efficiency and the value that steel products bring to customers and society.

The International Steel Association said that although the global steel industry still faces some downside risks. However, some positive factors are also emerging, and there are more and more positive news from the developed economies, especially the recovery momentum in the Eurozone. In developing and emerging economies, we are seeing an increasingly optimistic attitude towards India, where steel consumption is increasing in the Middle East and North Africa and the ASEAN region. Although these positive factors cannot completely offset the impact of China's economic growth decline, it is still expected that demand growth will gradually pick up after 2016.

The International Steel Association believes that Chinese demand will continue to decline. In 2014, due to the significant impact of China's economic restructuring on the real estate market, China's steel demand showed its first negative growth since 1995. This situation may not change in the short term, and China's steel demand will continue to show a negative growth of 0.5% in 2015 and 2016. In the medium term, there will be no strong rebound. In order to stabilize the decelerating Chinese economy, the Chinese government has taken some measures. There is still some uncertainty about the possible impact of these measures.

As China enters the next stage of development, the structural adjustment of the Chinese economy is inevitable, but it will take some time. In the short-term, due to the serious oversupply of domestic supply, China's steel exports have increased significantly in 2014, which will have an impact on the global steel trade pattern and may even intensify trade friction.

In 2014, developing countries (excluding China) experienced a low growth rate of 2.3%, one of which was due to the continued deterioration of the steel market in Brazil and Russia. It is expected that the growth momentum of developing economies in 2015 will remain weak overall. The steel market in many developing economies shows maturity, which inhibits the growth in demand for steel. Despite this, we still expect positive growth in some emerging economies such as India, Indonesia, Vietnam and Egypt, where the steel market is still evolving. The overall steel demand in these markets is expected to increase by 2.4% in 2015 and 4.0% in 2016.

In 2014, with the strong return of US fundamentals and the strong recovery of the EU, steel demand in developed countries increased by 6.2%. Despite this, the growth rate of developed countries is expected to slow down in 2015, partly due to the high base effect, and partly because the US economy is slowing down and the Japanese and Korean steel markets are more disadvantageous. Although the EU's economic recovery has a broad base in the region, it is still constrained by weak investment activity and high unemployment. Demand for steel in developed economies will increase by 0.2% in 2015 and 1.8% in 2016.

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